New Car Sales

The turn of the year gives us the opportunity to finish this.  New car sales in the last three months of 2010 continued to outstrip the 2009 figures.

According to figures released by SIMI there were 5,244 new cars sold in the last three months of the year.  This is a 123% increase on the 2,350 sold in the same period in 2009.  In fact, the Q4 new car sales in 2010 were only 9.6% behind the peak Q4 level from 2007 (although sales for the year were still down nearly 100,000 on 2007).

New Car Sales continue at pace

Figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) show than new car sales continue to outpace 2009 levels.  In September, over 4,300 new car were sold, up about 93% on the 2,200 sold in September of last year.  This follows an annual increase in August of 110% (5,000 versus 2,400)

When the July figures were released we wondered if the growth on the 2009 levels would continue in the normally quieter second half of the year.  In the last six months of 2009 just over 10,800 new cars were sold.  In 2010, the period July to September alone saw sales of over 15,700.  Figures for 2010 are already 45% on the second half of last year and there are still three months of this period to go.  It is likely we will see a growing divergence between the red and green lines above.

New Car Sales

It’s two months since we last looked at the figures for new car sales released by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry.  The figures are here.  The relatively strong trend in new car sales has continued.  Of course, this is relative to the 2009 lows.  Figures are still substantially below those seen in 2007 and 2008.

The running total to the end of July for 2010 of 74,111 is nearly 16,500 ahead of the total new car sales for the whole of 2009 (57,635).  Retail sales in general may be going into reverse but in the motor industry they continue to improve.
The last five months of the year are generally very poor for new car sales.  In 2009 just over 7,000 cars were sold in the period from August to December.   Even for the “boom” years this is a very quiet time in the car showrooms.  This five month period had 20,500 sales in 2007 and 11,200 in 2008.  These correspond to 10.9% and 7.3% of the total sales for the year.  It will be interesting to see if the pick up in new car sales seen so far in 2010 will continue into this traditionally quiet period.

Car sales trend continues

The upward trend that we have been following in new car sales continued into June according to the most recent figures released by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI).

New car sales in the first half of the year are over 21,000 ahead of sales in the same six months last year.  Sales are still way down on where they were in 2007 and 2008 but now there is a clear and growing divergence between the 2009 low and the 2010 line.

Improvement in car sales continues

Following from last month when car sales showed a 100% improvement compared to the same month last year, the relatively strong performance of new car sales compared to last year continued in May.  New car sales were up over 70% on the same month last year.  A graph of the details shown in the table below for the last three months is here.

The cumulative sales of new car to May in 2010 of 59,475 is greater than the total of 57,460 sold over the full 12 months of 2009.  The figures are still far far short of the levels seen in 2007 and 2008, but it is clear we have moved away from the 2009 lows as the red line below shows.

Geographic distribution of new car sales

We have been tracking the new car sales figures released each month by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI).  These figures come out within a day or two of the month-end and give a instant insight into a key retail sector.
For the four months to April, SIMI’s figures give an increase of 38.3% on new car sales in the same four months last year.  The Central Statistics Office also produce data on new cars on registrations.  This is much more detailed than the SIMI data but the cost of this is a delay in the release of the figures.  The CSO have two datasets of interest

1. Vehicle Registrations collected from VRT returns to the Revenue Commissioners
2. Vehicle Licensing collected from license plate numbers issued by licensing authorities

The Vehicle Licensing statistics allow us to get a geographic breakdown of the number of new cars licensed in each licensing area.  Ireland has 30 licensing areas corresponding to the geographic identifiers used on license plate numbers.
The Vehicle Licensing figures indicate that for the first four months of the year there was a 35.1% increase in the number of new passenger cars licensed compared to the same four months last year.  This is broadly in line the the SIMI figures.
However using the CSO’s data we can get a breakdown of this by region.  The top five areas for the first four months of the year are:
Four of the top five licensing authorities are in the south-east of the country.  On this list Kilkenny is also eighth with an annual increase of 46.8%.
The bottom five licensing areas are:

The two things to note here are the inclusion of Dublin in the bottom five, the country’s largest licensing area, and the negative figure for Limerick City, the only recorded drop in the country.  By contrast Limerick County ranked 14th with an increase in car licensing of 42.2%.
Although in the bottom five, the increase of 2,214 in new passenger car licenses in Dublin City and County is greater than the combined increase of 1,751 recorded for the top five licensing areas in the first table.
A table of the data for the first four months of the year for all 30 licensing authorities is available here. 
Finally, in percentage terms April was the best month of the year so far with an increase of  72.7% in new passenger car registrations on the same month last year.  Limerick City continues to be the poorest performing area with a drop of 56.8% on last year.  Waterford City and Roscommon also recorded drops.  At the other end, nine licensing areas had an increase of more than 100%.  Included here is the region of Cork City and County (+133.2%) which accounted for more than one-eighth of total licenses issued.  Full table here.

Car sales up by almost 100% in April

The recovery in car sales continues to gather pace.  The figures just released by the Society of Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) show that new car sales in April 2010 were 95.4% ahead of sales in the same month last year.  This is on top of the increases we have identified for the first three months of the year.

Month	2009	2010	Change	% Change
January	15,799	16,595	+796	+5.0%
February	8,883	12,306	+3,423	+38.5%
March	7,764	13,813	+6,049	+77.9%
April	4,373	8,544	+4,171	+95.4%
Total	36,819	51,258	+14,439	+39.2%

We can see that annual changes have increased for each of the first four months of the year.  For the year to date 14,439 (or 39.2%) more cars have been sold than in the same four months of 2009 according to the SIMI data. 
Although there is an improvement, sales are still substantially below the levels seen prior to the current downturn.  Year-to-date sales are 52.0% below the 2008 levels and 56.4% below the 2007 peak.  This is shown in the graph below with an alternative representation of the data to April available here and full-year data here.

These numbers will provide a strong boost to retail sales figures.  The March Retail Sales Index is due to be released by the CSO later this week.  The 77.9% annual increase in new car sales seen in March will provide strong boost for the All-Businesses Retail Sales Index with motor trades making up 29.0% of the March Index. What will be more interesting will be the performance of the Retail Sales Index excluding motor trades.
SIMI also claim that ‘only’ 5,000 of the almost 51,000 new car sold have seen buyers avail of the €1,500 VRT scrappage scheme rebate.  They also say the following:

An additional €60m in VAT and VRT for Government coffers has been generated from new car sales even after subtracting scrappage refunds.

It is hard to believe that is additional €60 million in VAT and VRT is due to the scrappage scheme.  To generate €60 million in revenue the 5,000 cars sold under the scrappage scheme would have to contribute €12,000 each VAT and VRT and €13,500 if we were to account for the €1,500 rebate.

Car sales continue to improve

Without much fanfare the Society of the Irish Motor Industry released their car sales figures for March last week.  The figures show a continued recovery in the sales of new cars.  This is good news.
Sales in March 2010 were 78% better than sales in March 2009 (13,813 versus 7,764).   This follows a 39% increase for February and a 5% increase for January.  Here are the monthly sales figures for the first three months of the year for 2007 to 2010.  Click image to enlarge.

The improved performance in 2010 can be clearly seen for February and March.  There has been a 31% increase in new car sales for the first quarter relative to the same period last year. 
This year 42,554 new cars have been registered compared to 32,447 last year, an increase of just over 10,000.  It is true that there are more ‘10’ reg cars on the road.

Car Sales Speeding Up?

We have been hearing positive vibes from the motor industry with sales figures for January released last week.  RTE tell us that there are more people buying new cars

The number of new cars registered last month is up 5% on January 2009, according to new figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry.  16,595 new cars were registered in January 2010, compared to 15,799 in January last year. This is the second consecutive month showing an increase.

See also reports in The Irish Times and The Irish Independent.  But as with so much economic commentary (spin?) things are not always as they appear to be.

It is true that 5% or 796 additional new cars were registered in January 2010 compared to Januray 2009, the total amount of cars registered in the month actually fell by 1,905 or 9%.  Registered cars includes new cars and the import of second hand cars.

The number of second hand cars imported in January 2010 was down 46% on the figure for Januray 2009, a drop from 5,889 to 3,188.  This means that the total number of car registration was 19,783 down from 21,688 -  a drop of 9%.  The data are provided by the Society of the Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) and can be accessed here.

To know the total number of car sales we would have to know the number of second hand sales but SIMI do not provide this information.  Without this figure it is hard to know what the outturn of total car sales figures was, but for the two figures we do know (new and second hand imports) car sales are down 9% on the same month last year.

And even for new cars the recovery isn't that impressive when we look at the data for a  few years.

Figures for the registrations of second hand imports are only available for Januray 2010 so we cannot include them. However, with car registrations down (new plus second hand imports) we can safely say that Vehicle Registration Tax (VRT) and VAT income for the Exchequer will be down. And with the government offering €1,500 scrappage for cars ten years or older to buyers of "low emissions" cars, there is no gain for the Exchequer from the motor trade. Indeed with reports that 71% of the new cars sold in January were in the "low emissions" category (less than 141g/km) these will be subject to lower VRT and Road Tax rates.

Still, it is likely that the "Big Freeze" had a negative impact on many retailers with test drives likely to be heavily hit. Therefore it is probably better to wait until the February figures to make a full pronouncement of the health or otherwise or motor sales.