European Food Prices – Ireland is cheap!!

This release from Eurostat on European food prices caused a minor stir last week when it revealed that Ireland had the second highest food prices in the 27 countries of the EU behind Denmark.

Danish food prices are 39% ahead of the EU average, while in Ireland we pay 29% above the EU average.  In contrast UK prices were 3% below the EU average.  The cheapest food prices were in Poland which are 36% below the EU average.

The media reaction was overwhelmingly negative with many reviving the image of “Rip-off Republic”.

• Irish food prices second highest in Europe (RTE)
• Ireland ranks 2nd in EU for high prices (Irish Examiner)
• We're second most expensive country in EU to buy groceries (Irish Independent)
• Irish prices among highest in EU (Irish Times)

To be honest, this didn’t quiet sit with me.  I cannot say that I feel hard done by for the price I have to pay for food.  I sought some hard evidence to support my anecdotal feeling.  I got it from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

A table on their website gives the percent of household final consumption expenditures spent on food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco that were consumed at home.  The 2007 version of the table is available here with the data for the EU combined with the Eurostat data in my table below.
The table includes only those 22 countries that are common to both data sets. Thus Finland, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania and Cyprus are omitted.  The Price column give the food and non-alcoholic beverages price in relation to the EU average (EU27 = 100).  The Spend column gives the percentage of household expenditure that goes on food.  Also note that the Price data relates to 2009 and the Spend data to 2007 but this is not likely to significantly change the findings.

Country	Prices	Spend
Denmark	139	10.7
Ireland	129	8.2
Austria	116	10.3
Belgium	115	13.3
Germany	111	11.4
France	110	13.7
Italy	108	14.5
Sweden	104	11.7
Greece	101	14.5
Netherlands	98	10.3
Spain	97	13.6
United Kingdom	97	8.6
Slovenia	96	14.9
Portugal	92	17.3
Latvia	85	19.2
Slovakia	81	17.9
Estonia	80	16.1
Hungary	79	17.1
Czech Republic	75	16.2
Lithuania	74	23.8
Bulgaria	68	20
Poland	64	20.6

What do we find?

Yes, Ireland does have the second highest absolute food prices in the EU, but as a percentage of total consumption Ireland has the cheapest food in the EU!!

Food prices may be high in Ireland but only 8.2% of our household consumption expenditure goes on food.  We have the remaining 91.8% of expenditure to buy other things (that we probably couldn’t afford in the first place!).  Poland has the cheapest food in the EU, but food exhausts over 20% of their household expenditure.  They have less than 80% to spend on other stuff.

According to the USDA table, in 2007, on average Irish households spent $2,160 on food and had $24,036 to spend on other things.  In Poland the average household expenditure on food was 36% less at only $1,375.  We can assume that this is as a result of the lower prices rather than lower appetites.  However in Poland there was only $5,300 left to spend on other things.  Ireland has substantially higher food prices, but this is more than offset by our substantially higher incomes.

Give me Ireland and it’s higher food prices any day!

Exchequer Balance Improves (sort of – again!)

We saw a €3 billion ‘improvement’ in the Exchequer Balance in May 2010 compared to last year.  This was attributable to the frontloading of a €3 billion contribution to the National Pension Reserve Fund to finance the recapitalisation of AIB and BOI.
The June Exchequer Returns that have just been released indicate a further €3 billion ‘improvement’ in the state of the public finances.

Can we explain why the red line for 2010 is outperforming the green line for 2009?  We haven’t turned that big a corner. 
As with the May ‘improvement’ the June equivalent is easy to explain.  In June 2009 we poured €3 billion into the nationalised Anglo Irish Bank.  This was included in the June 2009 Exchequer Statement.  We are continuing to pour money into Anglo but this is under the contrived construct of Promissory Notes and does not appear on the Exchequer Accounts (yet!). 
The EU Commission may yet rule that these transfers to banking sector have to be included in the Exchequer Accounts and the improvement shown above will instantly evaporate.
The creative accounting techniques used in the overall Exchequer Balance mean it is of little use in analysing the state of the public finances. A more instructive measure, and one slightly less open to manipulation, is the Exchequer Current Account Balance.  How has that been faring out given the steps that have been taken to restore order to the public finances?

That does not look good. The Current Budget Deficit up to June 2010 is €831 million or 11.5% worse than it was by the same time last year (a deficit of €8,045 million in 2010 versus one of €7,213 million in 2009).  The public finances continue to deteriorate.
Last June there was a monthly current budget deficit of €767 million.  This year the equivalent monthly deficit was slightly worse at €803 million.  With tax revenue up on the same month last year, this increase in the deficit is due to an increase in current expenditure.
Last June, Current Expenditure was €2,930 million while this year it was €3,403 million.  Timing issues allays the weight we can put on these monthly comparisons.  In the first six months of the year Current Expenditure was €19,655 million.  This is only 1.9% or €376 million below the 2009 figure of €20,031 million.
Of this €19.7 billion in Current Expenditure some €5.9 billion or 30% of the total has been current Social Welfare Expenditure.  This is the only area to show an increase in current expenditure.

This graph does not compare like with like, as a March reorganisation of government Departments saw the budget of the state training agency, FAS, come under the remit of the newly named Department of Social Protection.  Even before this change current social welfare expenditure was rising but the surge in the past few months is due to the reorganisation rather than a further acceleration of social welfare spending.

June Exchequer Returns

Last Friday the Department of Finance published the Exchequer Statement for June.  The gives us a picture of tax returns for the first half of the year.  It appears to me that the rate of decline in tax revenues has eased dramatically and we may not be too far from some real stabilisation.  Prepare for death by tables in the following analysis!  The usual graphs are also produced.
The source documents are:

• Exchequer Statement
• Analysis of Tax Revenue
• Analysis of Voted Expenditure
• Information Note

Most of the mainstream commentary focused on €227 million or 1.6% shortfall relative to the Department of Finance forecasts.  This is only a small part of the picture.  What is of more interest is the performance of tax revenues in the first six months of 2010 relative to the same period in 2009. 
Comparisons of cumulative tax revenues are given in the first table below.  Here we see that by the end of June  tax revenue is almost €1.4 billion or 9% below tax revenue from last year.  Just because most of this deterioration was expected does not detract from the nature of the decline.

This deterioration is seen across all the main tax headings.  Only the relatively insignificant Capital Acquisitions Tax shows an improvement in performance relative to last year.  All other taxes are down.  Most significant are the large drops in Income Tax and VAT, both of which are down almost half a billion euro on last year.

If we look at the more immediate figures and look what has happened in June alone we see that tax revenue in June was slightly up on the same month last year.  This is the second time in three months that this has happened. 

It should be noted that April and June are non-VAT months, and the fall in May means that revenues for the second quarter are still 1.4% below those from the same quarter last year.

Again the standout figure is the poor performance of Income Tax.  And we see that for four of the eight tax headings the quarterly comparison is positive.  The 1.4% drop for Q2 is a major improvement from the first quarter when tax revenue was 15.0% behind the 2009 figure (€7,236 million versus €8,510 million) and the comparison for all eight tax headings was negative.  Is this a sign of stabilisation after all?

So far in 2010, tax revenue is €1,377 million behind revenue in the same six months of 2009.  However €1,275 million or 92.6% of this drop occurred in the first three months of the year.  The second quarter only accounted for €103 million or 7.4% of the total drop.  The first three months of the year were catastrophic in terms of tax revenue but there does appear to have some degree of relative stabilisation since then.
If we return to the monthly revenues for June and examine the individual tax headings we can see that the 1.5% increase relative to June 2009 was driven entirely by a 16% jump in Corporation Tax revenues.  Companies paying preliminary Corporation Tax in June are those who have a year end of the 31st December.  It remains to be seen whether this is a precautionary move on the part of these companies or whether they actually will have a higher Corporation Tax liability in 2010.  Again we see the continuing poor performance of income tax relative to last year.  Most other tax headings are relatively unimportant in June.

The Department of Finance had been predicting a slightly better June, and tax revenue came in €80 million or 3.3% below the Department’s June forecast.  However, this was actually the best of the Department’s forecasts of the year so far.

Looking at the individual tax forecasts we see that the Department’s forecasts for June held up quiet well in all cases, except one.  The Department forecast most of the jump in Corporation Tax but continued to underestimate the fall in Income Tax receipts.  Excluding income tax the forecasts were close to accurate but the Department expected 10% more Income Tax to be collected.

The information note published with the returns may suggest that the Minister is relatively satisfied with the Department's forecasts and that “Budget Day targets remain valid”.  However, after almost coming in on target in April (only 0.1% below target) the gap between cumulative tax revenues for 2010 and the Department’s forecasts of same has been widening.  It was 1.2% in May and was 1.5% in June.  And remember these are targets that already forecast a 6% drop in the annual tax take.

It will be interesting to see what will happen over the next few months.  Without doubt the poor performance of Income Tax receipts will continue.  July is a VAT month and one wonders whether the improvement to a drop of only 1.3%, compared to the same month last year, seen in May will persist.
For those who prefer a visual representation of the figures here are some graphs that show the pattern to tax revenues for the past three years.  First, here’s total tax revenue.  The red line showing 2010 tax revenues continues to slip below the green line showing 2009’s dismal tax revenue when compared the 2007 and 2008 figures.

Here are the same graphs for the individual tax headings. Click individual graphs to enlarge.  Constantin Gurdgiev provides some analysis of these exact graphs here.

Improvement in car sales continues

Following from last month when car sales showed a 100% improvement compared to the same month last year, the relatively strong performance of new car sales compared to last year continued in May.  New car sales were up over 70% on the same month last year.  A graph of the details shown in the table below for the last three months is here.

The cumulative sales of new car to May in 2010 of 59,475 is greater than the total of 57,460 sold over the full 12 months of 2009.  The figures are still far far short of the levels seen in 2007 and 2008, but it is clear we have moved away from the 2009 lows as the red line below shows.

Core Inflation is unchanged – again!

The CSO have just published the Consumer Price Index for May.  The headline figure is that the overall rate of deflation has eased from –2.1% in April to –1.1% in May.  The suggestion is that the period of deflation may be coming to an end.  We doubted this in April and we continue to doubt it.
This slowing in the rate of deflation is driven almost entirely by two price sectors

• Energy makes up 7.8% of the index and is up 1.9% on the month.
• Mortgage Interest makes up 6.7% of the index and is up 6.1% on the month.

The CPI rose 0.6% between April and May, however Energy contributed 0.17% and Mortgage Interest 0.32%.   Energy prices rose largely because the Carbon Tax on Liquid Fuels introduced in last December’s budget came into effect in May.  Mortgage Interest rose as our beleaguered banks have been increasing variable mortgage rates.
Excluding these two categories, the remaining 85% of the index only contributed to a price rise of 0.11%.  On the whole prices were unchanged in May.  This gives us our measure of core inflation.
The rate of core deflation is not easing.

We can clearly see that overall CPI inflation rate has increased continually since the lows of October 2009.  On the other hand the core inflation rate which excludes the effect of mortgage interest and energy has shown no such improvement.  It was –2.8% in April and only moved to –2.7% in May.

Exchequer Balance Improves (sort of)

After showing some improvement in April compared to 2009, the Exchequer Balance for May shows shows an even bigger ‘improvement’.  By this time last year, the Exchequer was in the red to the tune of €10.6 billion. Twelve months on and the deficit is ‘only’ €7.9 billion.

However this improvement is only technical.  We frontloaded our 2010 contribution to the National Pension Reserve Fund to May 2009 to fund the recapitalisation of AIB and BOI.  This is €3 billion in capital expenditure that accounts for the difference. If this item is spread over the two years, as it would have been, this apparent improvement in the Exchequer Balance disappears.
If we look at the Exchequer Current Account we see that the deficit is actually worse!

By this time last year Current Spending had exceeded Current Revenue by €6.4 billion.  The equivalent deficit this year is €7.2 billion.  The Current Deficit is €800 million or 11% worse this year.  And that is after the measures adopted in last April’s Supplemental Budget and December’s 2010 Budget.
Last May there was a monthly current deficit of €18 million.  This year the monthly deficit was €310 million – an increase of 1,622%.  Most of this deterioration is down to the €319 million fall in monthly tax revenues.  Voted Current Expenditure in May last year was €3,327 million.  This year it was €3,259 million, a reduction of €68 million or 2%.  Not much austerity on view here.
Although expenditure in most areas in down slightly, Social Welfare Expenditure continues to rise.  So far this year the Exchequer has spent about half a billion more on social welfare, than by the same time last year.  This excludes the expenditure on social welfare that is financed by PRSI contributions paid into the Social Insurance Fund.

May Exchequer Returns

The Department of Finance have released the exchequer figures for May.  We were upbeat about the April figures, but that optimism has been quickly quelled.  The relevant documents are

• Exchequer Statement
• Analysis of Tax Revenue
• Analysis of Voted Expenditure
• Information Note

While tax revenues in January and February were almost 18% behind the previous year, the annual drop eased in both March and April.  This improvement stopped in May.  Tax revenue is now 10.4% behind the tax collected to May last year.

All taxes except CAT are behind last year’s revenues.  Excise duties had been performing well up to April, but Excise revenues in May were 13.3% below the same month last year, and now Excise Duty for the year is almost 3% below the amount collected by the same time last year. 

In April we noted that the monthly tax take was up 11.5% on the same month in 2009.  This positive sign has proven to be a once off.  May’s tax revenue of €3.1 billion was over €300 million or nearly 10% below the equivalent from last year.  The good news seen in April has quickly been reversed.
 
Of the eight tax headings the year-on-year comparison to May of last year is negative for seven of the eight headings.  The only tax head showing any improvement is, the now relatively unimportant, Stamp Duty.  This is the reverse of April, when seven of the tax heads were ahead of the April 2009 outturn.  The poor performance of Income Tax, in spite of higher Income Levy rates, is worrying.

Performance relative to Department forecasts for May was also poor and revenue for the month was 4.3% below target.  The Department’s forecasts for individual taxes can be seen here.  Tax revenue is now 1.2% behind the Budget forecast as can be seen here.

For those who prefer a visual representation of the figures here are some graphs that show the pattern to tax revenues for the past three years.  First, here’s total tax revenue.  The red line showing 2010 tax revenues continues to slip below the green line showing 2009’s dismal tax revenue.

Here are the same graphs for the individual tax headings.

• Income Tax
• Value Added Tax
• Corporation Tax
• Excise Duty
• Stamp Duty
• Capital Gains Tax
• Capital Acquisitions Tax
• Customs Duty

Finally, here is a table that looks at the relative importance of the individual tax headings to total tax revenue.

We can see that Income Tax and VAT are becoming an ever greater proportion of total tax revenue making up 75% of 2010 revenue to date.  At the same time in 2006 Income Tax and VAT comprised 63% of total tax revenue.  The importance of Excise Duty has remained relatively constant at around 14% of tax revenues.
Corporation Tax shows a slight decline but the biggest drops can be seen in the property related taxes.  The contribution of Stamp Duty and CGT has fallen from 13% in 2006 to only 3% this year.