No more money?

There are bound to be lots of issues raised over the course of the referendum campaign announced today.  Some will undoubtedly have nothing to do with the 11-page treaty but of those which will relate to the treaty will be Ireland’s access to support funds after 2013. 

Under the current programme the plan is that Ireland will be fully-funded in bond markets from by end of 2013.  Given the scale of the funding required in 2014 and 2015 this is still far from certain. 

The second-last provision of the preamble of the treaty (on page four) says:

STRESSING the importance of the Treaty establishing the European Stability Mechanism as an element of a global strategy to strengthen the Economic and Monetary Union and POINTING OUT that the granting of assistance in the framework of new programmes under the European Stability Mechanism will be conditional, as of 1 March 2013, on the ratification of this Treaty by the Contracting Party concerned and, as soon as the transposition period mentioned in Article 3(2) has expired, on compliance with the requirements of this Article,

This clearly states that no funding will be available to new programmes under the ESM unless the treaty is passed.  However on the 21st of July last, the statement issued by EU leaders at that summit in point 10 said that:

We are determined to continue to provide support to countries under programmes until they have regained market access, provided they successfully implement those programmes. We welcome Ireland and Portugal's resolve to strictly implement their programmes and reiterate our strong commitment to the success of these programmes.

This clearly states that funding will be provided under the existing programme (not a new programme) until that country has regained market access.

If we exit the current programme it is obvious that entry into a new programme funded by the ESM would require ratification of the treaty first.  That is a longer-term issue.  Of more immediate concern is which provision takes precedence for Ireland as long as we remain in the current programme? 

The recent bond swap

A recent look through Bank of Ireland’s preliminary report for 2011 revealed the following nugget of information on page 64:

On 25 January 2012, the National Treasury Management Agency offered bondholders the opportunity to exchange their existing holdings in respect of the 4% Treasury bond 2014 for a new 4.5% Treasury bond maturing in February 2015. The Group converted €1.3 billion of its Treasury bond 2014  into the new 4.5% Treasury bond 2015.

The NTMA announced that €3.53 billion of the Janurary 2014 bond was switched to the February 2015 bond.  Bank of Ireland accounted for 37% of the total amount swapped.

At the 31st of December  2011 BOI held €5,149 million of Irish government bonds on its balance sheet.  This is 6.0% of the total outstanding government bonds of €85,317 million.

BOI: An insight into mortgages

The annual results for 2011 published by Bank of Ireland earlier in the week provide a interesting insight into the detail of the mortgage market in Ireland.  The detail from pages 67 to 82 is something that has rarely been made available.

The Q4 2011 update of the Financial Regulator’s Mortgage Arrears Statistics showed that there was €113,477 million of owner-occupied mortgages in Ireland and that 12.3% by loan amount are in arrears of 90 days or more with 5.4% also by loan balance having been restructured in some way and not in arrears.  The figure for arrears under 90 days are not provided but it is likely that somewhere close to 25% of owner-occupied mortgages by balance have experienced some difficulty.

Here are the equivalent figures for Bank of Ireland’s Irish owner-occupied mortgage book.

Bank of Ireland has 18.4% of all owner-occupied mortgages in Ireland.  We can see that the levels of distress of significantly below those seen for the market as a whole.  In BOI, 7.4% of mortgages by balance are in arrears of 90 days or more compared to 13.4% for all other lenders in the market.

The restructured mortgages includes mortgages which may be less than 90 days in arrears so about 85% of Bank of Ireland’s mortgages are currently being repaid according to the original terms of the mortgage.  There are huge problems in the mortgage market in Ireland but BOI is still in the position of having 17 out of every 20 mortgages being repaid on time.  And it is also noteworthy that the bank says that among all restructured mortgages

“98% of this balance are paying interest only or greater on their balances.
16% are paying full principal and interest having had their mortgage term extended.”

A mortgage will be in arrears if a monthly payment is partially or fully missed.  A mortgage that is 90 days in arrears is the equivalent of three monthly payments in arrears, i.e. it would take the payment of a lump-sum equal to three monthly payments to bring the mortgage back on schedule. 

A mortgage can be 90 days in arrears if 75% of the agreed monthly payment has been made each month for a year.  The mortgage has not had a full payment made in 360 days but is the equivalent of three monthly payments or 90 days in arrears. 

A mortgage will also be 90 days in arrears if three full monthly payments are missed at any stage.  For example, if a mortgage had nothing paid on it between January to March 2011 and has had every monthly payment made in full since then it will be 90 days in arrears even though full payments have been made for the past year.

It is likely that there are very few mortgages on which nothing is being paid.  The majority of mortgages are likely to be in arrears because only partial payments were made or a number of payments were missed in full for a period.  There are likely some mortgages which are classed as being in arrears but full payments have resumed but the arrears continue to be outstanding.

The report also provides some useful insights into these figures.  Of the €2,405 million of owner-occupied mortgages that in some form of arrears, €582 million are impaired and have some loss provision made against them up from €440 million at the end of 2010.  Somewhat interesting is part of the explanation given for this increase in non-performing loans.  At the start the report says that “this increase is primarily attributed to the general economic downturn in Ireland and affordability issues including falling disposable incomes and high unemployment levels” but then adds:

In addition to the factors mentioned above, the increase in past due and impaired since August 2011 appear to have been impacted by the implementation of the new code of conduct on arrears and the considerable public speculation about potential Government policy measures regarding customers in arrears.

Of the €1,823 million of mortgages which are more than 30 days in arrears and not impaired, Bank of Ireland estimates using initial values and subsequent CSO and ESRI house price data that €778 million of the delinquent loans have properties that are not in negative equity.  This indicates that if these mortgages do default, the capacity for them to generate losses for the banks is limited as the secured collateral exceeds the size of the loan.  The current trajectory of house prices suggests that this will likely deteriorate.

There is €1,045 million of non-impaired mortgages in arrears and negative equity.  BOI estimate that the total negative equity on these loans is €261 million.  The loan-t0-value of these loans is 133%.

BOI has €582 million of owner-occupied mortgages that are impaired and estimates that these mortgages have €171 million of negative equity.  The loan-to-value of the impaired mortgages is 142%.

If all the €1,627 million of the owner-occupied mortgages which are impaired or both in arrears and negative equity were defaulted on then BOI estimates that the value of the properties secured against those loans would leave a shortfall of €432 million.  With costs and other issues it is likely that BOI would be looking at a loss of around €500 million if all mortgages currently in danger were to default.

As it is BOI has made a provision of €489 million against its owner-occupied mortgage book in Ireland.  This seems appropriate given the current level of arrears, impairments and house prices.  With most of these measures set to deteriorate it is likely that this provision, and subsequent actual losses, will increase.

The banking stress tests from last March provided for €2,075 million of lifetime loan losses on BOI’s owner-occupied mortgage book in Ireland under the stress scenario with €1,115 million of those projected to occur in the three-years from 2011-2013.

The annual report does not tell us the level of actual losses BOI incurred on its owner-occupied mortgage book in 2011.  Bank of Ireland has a policy of no debt write downs for mortgage holders. 

During 2011, BOI repossessed 90 owner-occupied homes.  The number of owner-occupied homes on its balance sheet increased from 65 to 99 during the year (up 34) and there was 56 disposals of repossessed owner-occupied homes during the year.  It is not clear what level of shortfall was left on these repossession (an average shortfall of €200,000 would leave a total of €18 million) or if the borrower is still liable for the shortfall. 

It is pretty clear that the level of owner-occupied mortgage losses in BOI is still significantly below the levels allowed for in the stress tests.  This will change as the 12 month moratorium for borrowers in the Mortgage Arrears Resolution Process will end in many cases but it could be 2013 until the measures in the Draft Personal Insolvency Bill become active. 

The report also gives an insight into the origination of the loans in BOI’s mortgage book.  This table includes the €21 billion of owner-occupied mortgages and some €7 billion of buy-to-let mortgages.  Click to enlarge.

Although mortgage arrears are clearly concentrated in loans that were issued between 2004 and 2008, there is arrears right across the loan book.  This means that the increase in Mortgage Interest Relief did not benefit all those who have fallen into arrears.  At a minimum around 27% of BOI’s mortgage accounts which are in arrears will not benefit from the increase in MIR as they did not originate between 2004 and 2008. 

The measure also excludes non-first-time buyers from between 2004 and 2008 so it is likely that only a fraction of BOI’s mortgage arrears accounts will benefit from the increased MIR.  It is also likely that many of those who gained were not in arrears and are now benefitting from increased interest relief and lower interest rates.

We also get an insight into negative equity and arrears by equity from this table.

In total, the loan-to-value of BOI’s owner-occupied loan book is estimated to be a rather convenient looking 100%.  The negative equity of the €10,567 million of loans with LTVs of greater than 100% is estimated to be €2,474 million.  The aggregate loan-to-value of the loans in negative equity is 131%.  On the other hand the aggregate loan-to-value of loans not in negative equity is 81%.  The final columns give the spread of arrears and impairment across the different LTVs.

Unsurprisingly, arrears and impairment are more likely amongst those loans that are in negative equity though almost one-third of those in arrears are not in negative equity.  The portion of the loan book that has a loan-to-value of more than 181% has arrears of 15.5% by loan balance compared to just 4.8% for all loans which are not in negative equity.

If the €2,474 million of negative equity on mortgages in BOI’s owner-occupied Irish mortgage book is representative of the overall market then, being 18.4% of the total market, this would imply that the level of negative equity in the residential mortgage market is around €13,500 million.  As BOI’s loan book is better performing than the rest of the market, and also has loans from before 2002 that newer entrants to the market do not have, this is likely to be an estimate from the lower range.

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An
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Joint Committee on EU Affairs

I am attending the Oireachtas EU Affairs Committee on Thursday.  The meeting will examine the Fiscal Compact, the updated Stability and Growth Pact, and the recently concluded second bailout agreement for Greece. 
A set of notes I prepared in advance of the meeting can be read here.


Contents:

1. Budgetary Rules in the ‘Fiscal Compact’
   1. The Debt Brake Rule
   2. The Structural Deficit Rule
2. Could Other Rules Have Prevented the Irish Crisis
   1. The Expenditure Rule
   2. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure
3. A Greek Deal for Ireland

UPDATE:  The transcript of last week’s session can be read here.

Unsecured Loan Quote - Way To A Suitable Interest Rate

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