Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Just how bad is it?

How does this recession compare to the 1980s? How were things 25 years ago in January 1984

Interest Rate: (for January)
1984: 11.50% (Central Bank of Ireland Rediscount Rate)
2009: 2.00% (European Central Bank Main Refinancing Rate)

Unemployment Rate: (for M12 of previous year)
1984: 14.8%
2009: 8.3%

Inflation: (annual rate for M12 of previous year)
1984: 10.3%
2009: 1.1%

Give me 2009!! Lower interest rates, unemployment and inflation, and all are substantially lower. Of course, it's not all sweetness and light. The Exchequer ran a deficit of 3.3billion in the last three months of 2008.

Exchequer Balance: (for Q4 of previous year)
1984: -437 million euro
2009: -3,310 million euro (6.5% of GDP)

If I can get GDP figures for Q4 1983 at current prices we can see what percentage of GDP the 1983 Exchequer Balance was. Even that may be worse than now unless GDP was greater than 27 billion in 1983 prices.

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