Thursday, July 14, 2011

Core inflation edges down

The June Consumer Price Index shows little change in inflation. The overall inflation rate remained at +2.7%, the level recorded in June, while our measure of core inflation, excluding energy products and mortgage interests, fell slightly to +0.5%.

Core Inflation June 2011

Our conclusion from May remains valid.

The measure of core inflation used here accounts for around 85% of the total index so those who are suffering from rising prices are:

  • those with standard rate mortgages with mortgage interest in the CPI (weighting 6.66%) up 24.1% on the year (we can also expect a further increase in ECB linked tracker mortgages over the coming weeks), and
  • those who purchase a lot of fuel with energy prices in the CPI (weighting 7.77%) up 11.6% on the year.  These are particularly drivers, as petrol and diesel make up about 50% of the energy subgroup and are up 13.8% on the year.  See here.   The other half of the energy sub-group (electricity, gas, liquid and solid fuels) is also rising up 6.8% on the year.

So somebody who has a standard variable rate mortgage and drives a lot is facing significant price increases compared to 12 months ago.  Outside of these particular cases the average inflation rate is quite low with the other 85% of the index rising only 0.5% on the year.

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