Friday, June 28, 2013

Retail Sales reverse trend

The Consumption figures in yesterday’s Quarterly National Accounts reflected a trend that was evident from the sharp decline in the retail sales index that began last Autumn.  However, the May Retail Sales Index shows a reversal (for one month anyway) of the downward trend.

Retail Sales to May 2013

The rise in May was not enough to bring the annual changes in positive territory.  The June figures will likely show an annual increase but there will have to be a concerted rise over the coming months just to keep pace with the increases that were seen during the summer and early autumn last year.

Annual Change in Retail Sales to May 2013

Finally, the monthly changes highlight the volatility of the series so a trend reversal of one month should be considered indicative of very little.

Monthly Change in Retail Sales to May 2013

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