Monday, January 10, 2011

Prospects for an “Export-Led Recovery”

Here are the slides I used in a seminar today to the Faculty of Commerce in UCC on the prospects of an export-led recovery in Ireland.

Slideshare seems to have thrown a few of the graphs out of whack and the vertical axis labels are missing on all the graphs.  Bar the area plots most of fine with the line charts largely unaffected.

Anyway the presentation had 30 slides to keep me going for the hour and has some interesting bits and pieces on Irish exports and imports of goods and services, but the crux of the matter can be gleaned from just four.

1. Net exports are surging ahead.

Balance of Trade

2. Our trade surplus is generated by our merchandise exports.

Balance of Goods and Services

3.  Until recently this was because imports were falling rather than exports rising.

Exports and Imports to November 2010

4.  Take away Chemicals and the balance you’re left with is …

Trade Balance excluding Chemicals

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